Crude oil, a critical component of the global economy, has its prices influenced by various factors such as economic trends, political events, and natural disasters. Traditional prediction methods based on historical data have their limits in forecasting, but recent advancements in natural language processing bring new possibilities for event-based analysis. In particular, Language Models (LM) and their advancement, the Generative Pre-trained Transformer (GPT), have shown potential in classifying vast amounts of natural language. However, these LMs often have difficulty with domain-specific terminology, limiting their effectiveness in the crude oil sector. Addressing this gap, we introduce CrudeBERT, a fine-tuned LM specifically for the crude oil market. The results indicate that CrudeBERT's sentiment scores align more closely with the WTI Futures curve and significantly enhance price predictions, underscoring the crucial role of integrating economic principles into LMs.

Abstract: In the field of global energy and environment, crude oil is an important strategic resource, and its price fluctuation has a far-reaching impact on the global economy, financial market and the process of low-carbon development. In recent years, with the gradual promotion of green energy transformation and low-carbon development in various countries, the dynamics of crude oil market have become more complicated and changeable. The price of crude oil is not only influenced by traditional factors such as supply and demand, geopolitical conflict and production technology, but also faces the challenges of energy policy transformation, carbon emission control and new energy technology development. This diversified driving factor makes the prediction of crude oil price not only very important in economic decision-making and energy planning, but also a key issue in financial markets.In this paper, the spot price data of European Brent crude oil provided by us energy information administration are selected, and a deep learning model with three layers of LSTM units is constructed to predict the crude oil price in the next few days. The results show that the LSTM model performs well in capturing the overall price trend, although there is some deviation during the period of sharp price fluctuation. The research in this paper not only verifies the applicability of LSTM model in energy market forecasting, but also provides data support for policy makers and investors when facing the uncertainty of crude oil price.

However, the prediction of crude oil prices is renowned for its obscurity and complexity. The high degree of volatility, unpredictable, irregular events, and complex interconnections among market factors make it extremely challenging to accurately forecast the fluctuations in crude oil prices. The dynamic interplay of supply and demand and changes in oil prices are influenced by external factors such as economic growth, financial markets, geopolitical conflicts, warfare, and political considerations [1, 2, 3]. A variety of methodologies have been utilised for predicting crude oil prices, involving the application of econometric and statistical time series analysis techniques such as VAR [4], ARIMA, GARCH [5], VMD [6], and Walvet decomposition [7]. In more recent studies, there has been a prevalent use of machine learning models and hybrid approaches [2, 8, 9] in the literature. Nevertheless, achieving accurate oil price forecasting remains a challenging task, particularly in terms of multi-step forecasting. Traditional econometric and statistical methods are often inadequate for forecasting oil prices due to many challenges related to the irregular characteristics of energy markets, such as non-stationarity, multi-frequency, non-linearity, and chaotic properties [10].

Accurate crude oil price forecasting is crucial for various economic activities, including energy trading, risk management, and investment planning. Although deep learning models have emerged as powerful tools for crude oil price forecasting, achieving accurate forecasts remains challenging. Deep learning models' performance is heavily influenced by hyperparameters tuning, and they are expected to perform differently under various circumstances. Furthermore, price volatility is also sensitive to external factors such as world events. To address these limitations, we propose a hybrid approach combining metaheuristic optimisation and an ensemble of five popular neural network architectures used in time series forecasting. Unlike existing methods that apply metaheuristics to optimise hyperparameters within the neural network architecture, we exploit the GWO metaheuristic optimiser at four levels: feature selection, data preparation, model training, and forecast blending. The proposed approach has been evaluated for forecasting three-ahead days using real-world Brent crude oil price data, and the obtained results demonstrate that the proposed approach improves the forecasting performance measured using various benchmarks, achieving 0.000127 of MSE.

Accurate crude oil price prediction is crucial for financial decision-making. We propose a novel reservoir computing model for forecasting crude oil prices. It outperforms popular deep learning methods in most scenarios, as demonstrated through rigorous evaluation using daily closing price data from major stock market indices. Our model's competitive advantage is further validated by comparing it with recent deep-learning approaches. This study introduces innovative reservoir computing models for predicting crude oil prices, with practical implications for financial practitioners. By leveraging advanced techniques, market participants can enhance decision-making and gain valuable insights into crude oil market dynamics.

The complexity and ambiguity of financial and economic systems, along with frequent changes in the economic environment, have made it difficult to make precise predictions that are supported by theory-consistent explanations. Interpreting the prediction models used for forecasting important macroeconomic indicators is highly valuable for understanding relations among different factors, increasing trust towards the prediction models, and making predictions more actionable. In this study, we develop a fundamental-based model for the Canadian-U.S. dollar exchange rate within an interpretative framework. We propose a comprehensive approach using machine learning to predict the exchange rate and employ interpretability methods to accurately analyze the relationships among macroeconomic variables. Moreover, we implement an ablation study based on the output of the interpretations to improve the predictive accuracy of the models. Our empirical results show that crude oil, as Canada's main commodity export, is the leading factor that determines the exchange rate dynamics with time-varying effects. The changes in the sign and magnitude of the contributions of crude oil to the exchange rate are consistent with significant events in the commodity and energy markets and the evolution of the crude oil trend in Canada. Gold and the TSX stock index are found to be the second and third most important variables that influence the exchange rate. Accordingly, this analysis provides trustworthy and practical insights for policymakers and economists and accurate knowledge about the predictive model's decisions, which are supported by theoretical considerations.

National Association of Securities Dealers Automated Quotations(NASDAQ) is an American stock exchange based. It is one of the most valuable stock economic indices in the world and is located in New York City \cite{pagano2008quality}. The volatility of the stock market and the influence of economic indicators such as crude oil, gold, and the dollar in the stock market, and NASDAQ shares are also affected and have a volatile and chaotic nature \cite{firouzjaee2022lstm}.In this article, we have examined the effect of oil, dollar, gold, and the volatility of the stock market in the economic market, and then we have also examined the effect of these indicators on NASDAQ stocks. Then we started to analyze the impact of the feedback on the past prices of NASDAQ stocks and its impact on the current price. Using PCA and Linear Regression algorithm, we have designed an optimal dynamic learning experience for modeling these stocks. The results obtained from the quantitative analysis are consistent with the results of the qualitative analysis of economic studies, and the modeling done with the optimal dynamic experience of machine learning justifies the current price of NASDAQ shares.

Over the past 20 years, Kenya's demand for petroleum products has proliferated. This is mainly because this particular commodity is used in many sectors of the country's economy. Exchange rates are impacted by constantly shifting prices, which also impact Kenya's industrial output of commodities. The cost of other items produced and even the expansion of the economy is significantly impacted by any change in the price of petroleum products. Therefore, accurate petroleum price forecasting is critical for devising policies that are suitable to curb fuel-related shocks. Data mining techniques are the tools used to find valuable patterns in data. Data mining techniques used in petroleum price prediction, including artificial neural networks (ANNs), support vector machines (SVMs), and intelligent optimization techniques like the genetic algorithm (GA), have grown increasingly popular. This study provides a comprehensive review of the existing data mining techniques for making predictions on petroleum prices. The data mining techniques are classified into regression models, deep neural network models, fuzzy sets and logic, and hybrid models. A detailed discussion of how these models are developed and the accuracy of the models is provided.

The paper proposes a time-varying parameter global vector autoregressive (TVP-GVAR) framework for predicting and analysing developed region economic variables. We want to provide an easily accessible approach for the economy application settings, where a variety of machine learning models can be incorporated for out-of-sample prediction. The LASSO-type technique for numerically efficient model selection of mean squared errors (MSEs) is selected. We show the convincing in-sample performance of our proposed model in all economic variables and relatively high precision out-of-sample predictions with different-frequency economic inputs. Furthermore, the time-varying orthogonal impulse responses provide novel insights into the connectedness of economic variables at critical time points across developed regions. We also derive the corresponding asymptotic bands (the confidence intervals) for orthogonal impulse responses function under standard assumptions.

COVID-19 is an infectious disease that mostly affects the respiratory system. At the time of this research being performed, there were more than 1.4 million cases of COVID-19, and one of the biggest anxieties is not just our health, but our livelihoods, too. In this research, authors investigate the impact of COVID-19 on the global economy, more specifically, the impact of COVID-19 on financial movement of Crude Oil price and three U.S. stock indexes: DJI, S&P 500 and NASDAQ Composite. The proposed system for predicting commodity and stock prices integrates the Stationary Wavelet Transform (SWT) and Bidirectional Long Short-Term Memory (BDLSTM) networks. Firstly, SWT is used to decompose the data into approximation and detail coefficients. After decomposition, data of Crude Oil price and stock market indexes along with COVID-19 confirmed cases were used as input variables for future price movement forecasting. As a result, the proposed system BDLSTM WT-ADA achieved satisfactory results in terms of five-day Crude Oil price forecast.